Author Topic: Brexit  (Read 16925 times)

Offline smartcooky

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #30 on: June 24, 2016, 06:14:59 PM »
Do any the British posters here think there is any possibility that the Conservative Government could force an early General Election and then campaign on an election promise that Britain would remain in the EU, then if they get elected (which would be a distinct possibility once the reality hits home for those who voted to leave), they could rightly claim that their victory was a mandate to overturn the referendum result?

I understand that a significant majority of MPs from both sides of the house thought leaving unwise
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Offline darren r

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #31 on: June 24, 2016, 06:32:12 PM »
Do any the British posters here think there is any possibility that the Conservative Government could force an early General Election and then campaign on an election promise that Britain would remain in the EU, then if they get elected (which would be a distinct possibility once the reality hits home for those who voted to leave), they could rightly claim that their victory was a mandate to overturn the referendum result?

I understand that a significant majority of MPs from both sides of the house thought leaving unwise

Unfortunately, Boris Johnson, the front runner for the Prime Minister's job once the current incumbent goes (he resigned today but isn't planning on stepping down until October) is also one of the leading lights of the Brexit campaign. He is nakedly cynical and ambitious but I think that would be too Machiavellian even for him. Even if, as some commentators are suggesting, he is as shocked and surprised by this outcome as anyone else.

Besides, the EU isn't going to wait around while the government takes it's sweet time to invoke Clause 50 (the announcement of the intention to leave). They want us gone as soon as possible, with the roughest deal they can negotiate, to help bring other wavering states back into line (there are already rumblings from far-right parties in France and the Netherlands). I somehow doubt the EU would take us back.

No, they've made their crappy bed. Now we're all going to have to lie in it.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2016, 06:34:29 PM by darren r »
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Offline Luke Pemberton

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #33 on: June 24, 2016, 11:52:05 PM »
Do any the British posters here think there is any possibility that the Conservative Government could force an early General Election and then campaign on an election promise that Britain would remain in the EU.

Not now that Cameron has resigned as PM, but then he never would have called an early election if he stayed in office, not on stay in EU ticket. That would have torn the Tories apart, and despite his pro-Euro stance, the party comes first. The EU Referendum was a huge gamble to hold the Tories together during the 2015 election campaign and one he lost. Forcing a general election is difficult under the fixed parliament act, not impossible, but more difficult. Now that David Cameron has resigned it is likely that the Conservatives will lurch to the right as those that campaigned for Brexit will take the reins of the Tory party. They are hardly going to call an election to overturn the result they wanted.
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Offline Luke Pemberton

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #34 on: June 25, 2016, 12:02:02 AM »
Besides, the EU isn't going to wait around while the government takes it's sweet time to invoke Clause 50 (the announcement of the intention to leave). They want us gone as soon as possible, with the roughest deal they can negotiate, to help bring other wavering states back into line (there are already rumblings from far-right parties in France and the Netherlands). I somehow doubt the EU would take us back.

There is also Darren's observation smartcooky. The EU wants to ensure that other states do not follow suit, so will make an example of Britain to reduce the fallout across the whole EU. We're about to be shafted very hard. There simply is not time to reverse this decision. The only saving grace would be for the Commons and Lords to reject the result as the referendum is not legally binding, but this will not happen either. I cannot see the SNP tabling a motion or supporting a vote to overturn the result, as they are driven by independence and given Scotland voted remain this is their opportunity.  Many Scottish people voted to stay in the UK based on us being in the EU. Now we are leaving the EU, it is likely that the Scots will vote for independence. The government will gain support from elements of the Northern Irish parties to carry the vote on the referendum. If the Lords vote it down it would be their death knell.
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Offline ka9q

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #35 on: June 25, 2016, 01:28:02 AM »
I really hate to ask this at such an especially bad time, but could one of you Brits give this confused Yank a very brief thumbnail sketch of the structure of the British government, especially as it contrasts with the US version? Whenever I think I'm starting to understand it, I realize I don't.

I know the main difference is we have a presidential system in which a separately elected chief executive runs a separate executive branch of government while you have a Parliamentary system in which the executive is the leader of the majority party in the legislature. While our elections occur on fixed timetables and it is intentionally difficult but not impossible for our Congress to get rid of the US president before an election, you have something called a "vote of no confidence" and seem able to call elections and change prime ministers on short notice.

I know that although we both have two houses in the legislature, our "higher" house is elected and yours isn't. Our system seems structured to perpetuate two dominant political parties because of a "prisoner's dilemma" type situation discouraging votes for third parties; in your system, multiple parties and coalitions seem common.

In our system, impeachment is just one element of what seems to be a much more explicit separation of powers and "checks and balances" between branches of government. And of course we have all this in a written constitution that everyone at least claims to hold in very high regard, and which is formally interpreted by a separate branch of government, the judiciary, using a system of common law that we inherited from you guys.

So, what important differences did I miss?

Offline Luke Pemberton

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #36 on: June 25, 2016, 02:15:43 AM »
I really hate to ask this at such an especially bad time, but could one of you Brits give this confused Yank a very brief thumbnail sketch of the structure of the British government, especially as it contrasts with the US version? Whenever I think I'm starting to understand it, I realize I don't.

Elements of the structure changed during the 2010-15 Coalition government. 5 year fixed terms parliaments were introduced, but an early parliamentary election can still be called. A government cannot call an early election, but an election can be triggered if a motion is passed that the House of Commons has no confidence in Her Majesty's Government.

However, the party can change  leader and therefore change PM without a general election. We vote along the lines of party through first past the post system and vote on manifesto rather than leader. The government deliver on their manifesto through a series of bills which are in the Queen's speech each year. If a Government tries to introduce legislation outside their manifesto they generally won't get far, but manifestos are often written in weasel language for reasons of post election interpretation. Also, Governments regularly sit on areas of manifesto that they are less interested in, basically they go back on promises they made to woo elements of the electorate.

The Brexit vote is interesting, as there is talk of a general election this year or early next year. How this is feasible in fixed term parliaments, I'm unsure. The electorate voted this government to deliver their manifesto over a fixed term - that's one of the founding principles of the fixed term parliament.

The House of Lords scrutinises bills that have been approved by the House of Commons. It regularly reviews and amends Bills from the Commons. While it is unable to prevent Bills passing into law, except in certain limited circumstances, it can delay Bills and force the Commons to reconsider their decisions. In this capacity, the House of Lords acts as a check on the House of Commons that is independent from the electoral process. The Lords is complex in that is has gone through numerous reforms over the last 20 years.
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Offline Glom

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #37 on: June 25, 2016, 06:31:52 AM »


I really hate to ask this at such an especially bad time, but could one of you Brits give this confused Yank a very brief thumbnail sketch of the structure of the British government, especially as it contrasts with the US version? Whenever I think I'm starting to understand it, I realize I don't.

I know the main difference is we have a presidential system in which a separately elected chief executive runs a separate executive branch of government while you have a Parliamentary system in which the executive is the leader of the majority party in the legislature. While our elections occur on fixed timetables and it is intentionally difficult but not impossible for our Congress to get rid of the US president before an election, you have something called a "vote of no confidence" and seem able to call elections and change prime ministers on short notice.

As with many parliamentary systems, monarchical and republican, executive is vested in a head of state who does not in practice wield it. Instead, a head of government is derived from the lower chamber of the parliament, the Commons in our case, appointed by the head of state to wield it in her name. It would be like the majority house leader becoming president.

The individual who is appointed is the person best placed to command a majority in the Commons, which usually means the leader of the largest party. If that party changes leader, the Prime Minister changes without need for a general election. Internal party politics is probably about as common a way for the Prime Minister to change as a general election where his party loses MP's to the point that he stops being able to command a majority. In Australia, it seems to be a weekly ritual.

Until recently, dissolving Parliament to call an election was part of the Royal Prerogative, so could be done anytime the Queen felt like it. In practice, this meant whenever the Prime Minister asked her to. 5 years ago, the Fixed Term Parliament act ended that. Now to dissolve Parliament requires a super-majority vote in the Commons. Instead Parliament will expire after 5 years.

Every year, there is a Queen's Speech in Parliament, delivered by Queen by written by the government and usually accompanied by mêmes in the press suggesting the Queen is thinking little of what she is having to say. A vote on the Queen's Speech is a vote of confidence in the government and so if it fails (highly rare) the government is sacked and a new one formed. If necessary a general election may need to be called to find a new one. However, I'm not sure how this works in the world of fixed term parliaments.

Quote
I know that although we both have two houses in the legislature, our "higher" house is elected and yours isn't. Our system seems structured to perpetuate two dominant political parties because of a "prisoner's dilemma" type situation discouraging votes for third parties; in your system, multiple parties and coalitions seem common.

The Lords were originally supposed to represent the aristocracy, hence the name. The positions were hereditary up until 20 years ago. Now there is the thing called a life peerage where an individual is enobled by the Queen on advice of someone governmental and serves for life, but the position is not hereditary.

This is a great cause of controversy and Lords reform is on the agenda still. The Lords is one of the few upper chambers in the world which is bigger than the lower chamber, which is taken as a sign it doesn't work properly. Basically, whenever a government changes, the old Lords stay in place while new Lords are appointed to "better reflect" the new mandate of the people. This means more party apparatchiks and worse party candidates defeated at the ballot box but favoured by the party leadership getting enobled.

There is a drive for changing to an elected chamber, a sort of Senate in form if not in name, but the Commons are sceptical because they don't want the Lords challenging their supremacy. Being a pig's ear of a house allows them to function in their role of reviewing and revising legislation while delegitimising them to the point that they know who the real legislators are. Elections are also not universally supported because it is considered there is an advantage to getting people who bring certain expertise who are not normally full time politicians. The Lords does have a high proportion of cross benchers who do not have a party loyalty.

Our political landscape has fractured a lot of recent decades. The Commons is elected by First Past the Post, which means there are 650 constituencies who elect a single MP on the basis that whoever gets the most votes wins. This helps to keep the two main parties dominant but allows for local variations, for example nationalists in Scotland and Wales, while Northern Ireland has a completely different set of parties to Great Britain. This is also controversial. We had a referendum on voting reform a few years ago, which was resoundingly rejected.

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So, what important differences did I miss?

So in summary, key differences:

Parliamentary vs executive presidency.
Separation of role of head of state and head of government.
Unelected upper chamber, which hangs in limbo for reform.
Governments can be toppled by general elections but also failing to get a Queen's Speech through Parliament and through internal party politics.

Offline gillianren

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #38 on: June 25, 2016, 11:36:30 AM »
Too often I heard people say that 'I've got my country back', without apparently understanding that if it wasn't their country before, it sure as hell won't be now. The whole thing is being sold as the triumph of the working class over the 'elites', when it's obvious that this will only make things worse for them. Any EU laws guaranteeing maternity leave, sick pay, health and safety and limiting working hours can now be swept away as 'restrictive red tape'.

Not to mention, from what I've read, gay rights protections and climate change policy, though I'm sure a lot of the people who voted Leave don't care about either of those.

A friend of a friend on Facebook was complaining that the EU was "undemocratic."  Several of us pointed out that, since Parliament is half a republic and half an aristocracy, led at least on paper by a woman who's both a monarch and a theocrat, complaining about an outside force as being undemocratic was an odd place to start.
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Offline darren r

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #39 on: June 25, 2016, 01:05:46 PM »


Not to mention, from what I've read, gay rights protections and climate change policy, though I'm sure a lot of the people who voted Leave don't care about either of those.

A friend of a friend on Facebook was complaining that the EU was "undemocratic."  Several of us pointed out that, since Parliament is half a republic and half an aristocracy, led at least on paper by a woman who's both a monarch and a theocrat, complaining about an outside force as being undemocratic was an odd place to start.

Studies have already revealed that most Leave voters are broadly similar to those who support Donald Trump - older, white, working class, with a resistance to things like feminism and green policies. I've been hearing some odd stories from people about their parents and neighbours who voted Leave. I have a friend whose family own a farm and seem to think that they will be able to make up for losing the EU subsidies....somehow. They haven't bothered doing the sums. This friend's mother works in a nursing home and voted leave because she thought it was unfair that the Filipino women who also work there have to jump through more hoops to be in the UK than European citizens did. Admirable enough, except Britain leaving the EU won't make a blind bit of difference to those women.

Another friend has elderly neighbours who voted leave because, and I quote, you used to be able to get two loaves of bread for a £1 and now you can't (actually you can - depends where you shop), and somehow that's the EU's fault. Honestly, some of this stuff is so ridiculous you have to laugh.

And you're right, Gillian, the machinations of the EU are a damn sight more transparent and accountable than the ramshackle system we've cobbled together in the UK over the last few centuries. Though you wouldn't know that if you'd listened to EU sceptics over the last few years. Trouble is, people were depressingly prepared to believe all the BS they were being sold, with the result that we've ended up in a situation which came as a surprise, even a shock, even to most of those clamouring for it.
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Offline smartcooky

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #40 on: June 25, 2016, 04:15:23 PM »
UK Prime Minister David Cameron promised the referendum in a speech have gave in London on 23 January 2013. He must surely have understood that a the higher the turnout the more likely it would be that the vote would go in favour of remaining.

It beggars belief, therefore, that the Tories did not arrange the Referendum to be held at the same time as the 2015 General Election thereby maximising the voter turnout for both.

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Offline Bryanpoprobson

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #41 on: June 25, 2016, 04:54:37 PM »
UK Prime Minister David Cameron promised the referendum in a speech have gave in London on 23 January 2013. He must surely have understood that a the higher the turnout the more likely it would be that the vote would go in favour of remaining.

It beggars belief, therefore, that the Tories did not arrange the Referendum to be held at the same time as the 2015 General Election thereby maximising the voter turnout for both.

A high turnout in General elections tends to favour the Labour vote.
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Offline Luke Pemberton

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #42 on: June 25, 2016, 06:30:03 PM »
It beggars belief, therefore, that the Tories did not arrange the Referendum to be held at the same time as the 2015 General Election thereby maximising the voter turnout for both.

Parliament would be dissolved, it would be unconstitutional to hold a referendum when no party has a legitimate mandate to deliver policy.

Further, had Labour won the 2015 election and a referendum delivered the same result, Labour would have ignored the result. The referendum is only advisory, so a pro-European Labour party would not pay it lip service.
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Offline smartcooky

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #43 on: June 25, 2016, 07:59:22 PM »
It beggars belief, therefore, that the Tories did not arrange the Referendum to be held at the same time as the 2015 General Election thereby maximising the voter turnout for both.

Parliament would be dissolved, it would be unconstitutional to hold a referendum when no party has a legitimate mandate to deliver policy.

Further, had Labour won the 2015 election and a referendum delivered the same result, Labour would have ignored the result. The referendum is only advisory, so a pro-European Labour party would not pay it lip service.

OK, but our Parliamentary Democracy is based on your Westminster system (the only thing absent is the Upper House), and yet we regularly have Referenda at the same time as our General Elections, eg

1990 (electoral period 3 or 4 years)
1993 (electoral system FPP/MMP)
2011 (electoral system MMP/STV/FPP/SM)
« Last Edit: June 25, 2016, 08:05:50 PM by smartcooky »
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Offline Glom

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Re: Brexit
« Reply #44 on: June 25, 2016, 08:03:13 PM »
Cameron didn't have the majority to call such a referendum prior to the 2015 general election.