Author Topic: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?  (Read 550305 times)

Offline gillianren

  • Uranus
  • ****
  • Posts: 2211
    • My Letterboxd journal
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #135 on: January 25, 2013, 12:26:28 PM »
. . . (and by the way, do you know what being hoisted by your own petard means?)

Yes.  First, the quote is "hoist with your own petar," not "hoisted by your own petard."  Second, it means "blown up by your own grenade."  You can't be left swinging from it after, because it's bits all over the landscape.  (Actually, it's also a pun on flatulence, hence "petar" and not "petard," but no one ever knows that, either!)  This is something that makes me twitch, and I'm afraid you've been caught in it.

Actually, though, I have no disagreement with any of the science anyone has posted thus far.  It's just that we've finally hit one of my fields of expertise, and I couldn't leave the error alone!
"This sounds like a job for Bipolar Bear . . . but I just can't seem to get out of bed!"

"Conspiracy theories are an irresistible labour-saving device in the face of complexity."  --Henry Louis Gates

Offline JayUtah

  • Neptune
  • ****
  • Posts: 3814
    • Clavius
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #136 on: January 25, 2013, 12:58:27 PM »
If I had a PhD in Aeronautical Engineering from MIT, it wouldn't make me right or wrong.

It would make your argument more credible if you chose to base it, as you have, on your claims to expertise.  If you are going to claim that your expert knowledge tells you Apollo can't possibly have happened as advertised, you will have to qualify yourself as that expert.  You have made exactly that claim, and while you have attempted to qualify as an expert, you have spectacularly failed.

If your claim were made purely on the basis of lay observation, your expertise and knowledge would be irrelevant.  But you have not made such a claim.  Nor would such a claim be very relevant to the question of Apollo's authenticity.  As long as the claim is, and must be, whether Apollo was a credible engineering project, expertise in engineering will be required.

Quote
The government lies all the time.  NASA is the government.  Why do people believe them?  The moon landing is a belief system.  It's a religion.

No, that argument is based on pure fantasy.

Let's first examine the vast majority of people in the middle of the demographic, those who don't have any special knowledge of science or engineering or space travel.  While many of them believe in the Moon landings, a number of them believe it was hoaxed.  In neither case is that belief especially informed.  It is propositional belief, as you outline.  It may be akin to religion in the sense that one simply believes what one is told, but that two-edged sword cuts both ways.

Now let's consider those who are appropriately schooled in the relevant sciences and who may additionally or alternatively have considerable professional expertise.  We raise the notion of schooling because it is adjudicated training -- we can measure how well someone achieves it.  We raise the notion of professional experience because it is the school of hard knocks and provides equal measure of success.  In either case, there are consequences for being wrong, where "wrong" is defined as misunderstanding or mistaking the laws of the universe and the machines and techniques we use to employ those laws for our benefit.  We find that among these people there is no question that the Moon landings were genuine.  These are the well-informed people, not the unwashed masses.  Their belief is not propositional.  It is not religious.  It is born of hard-won knowledge and experience.  They are not fooled.  They believe Apollo was real because they observe its fundamental principles at work every day and employ them in ways that would fail to their detriment of those observations were wrong.

Now let's look at the other dimension -- belief, versus knowledge -- and see where that envelope lies.  Among those who believe Apollo was fake we find almost no one who can discuss how it worked or was purported to work with any degree of comprehension.  We find people whose grasp of the historical record is so faulty as to make egregious errors such as "Buzz Armstrong."  While many of these profess to be highly competent engineers, scientists, technicians, or otherwise, we find them almost completely unable (and subsequently unwilling) to demonstrate that competence.  It is clear they've spent most of their time debating with people in that middle ground above, who have little prior knowledge of the subject.  Easy pickings, in other words.

And curiously, proponents of Apollo hoax theories very often disintegrate in a poof of socio-political flame, as you have done.  Their pretense to it being a rational argument with scientific and engineering support eventually gives way every time, and they reveal the true nature of their beliefs.  These non-technical hoax believers, at the deepest level, simply want to pummel someone for their alleged folly and thereby set themselves up in contrast as deep thinkers.  That's the neurological payoff.  They want to believe they alone have discovered something secret and dastardly, and everyone else is just sheeple for believing otherwise.  The thrill of rebellion is what you crave.

Now with that categorical analysis behind us we can examine your characterization of historical belief.  You desperately want to believe that only the middle group exists.  They are the ones you seek out because they are the most easily swayed by your arguments.  And converting them to your beliefs gives you the emotional and intellectual payoff.  You are unable to cope with people who can rationally dispute your claims.  You desperately want to lump us in with the ignorant masses from which you draw your supportive audience.  But we aren't part of that group.

Now if you remain true to form, you'll realize that we can outsmart you, and you'll realize we aren't the uninformed masses.  So in the typical model you'll now reformulate us as disinformationists or government shills.  You'll acknowledge that we are able to rebut your claims, at least on the superficial level.  But you'll maintain that your understanding is still superior and that we've just muddied the otherwise clear waters with meaningless sophistry.  And you'll say that we're ideologically motivated to conceal the truth with technobabble.  You'll desperately try to shift the argument from who knows more to who is more trusthworthy.

Quote
I can't prove Jesus didn't come to America, but millions of Mormons believe it.  I could show them all kinds of equations, and it wouldn't change their minds.

Apples and oranges.  Equations are not appropriate to what is inherently a religious (and only marginally historical) question.  And a lot of people spend time showing Mormons that their historical claims are without merit.  Whether their religious claims have merit is not even a critical-thinking issue.  And worldwide, few people adhere to Mormonism's claims.

The Mormon claim is that the resurrected Jesus came to America, which is inherently a religious claim.  It presupposes the existence of Jesus, his supernatural nature, and the reality of corporeal resurrection.  Science (and this forum) cares not one whit for it.  But it is relevant in that Mormons don't believe this based on a persuasive historical or technical claim.  While a few Mormons argue there is historical confirmation for some of the relevant claims about their religion, few Mormons cite that as the reason for their faith.  They read a book they're told is holy, and accept its claims entirely on faith.  Many of their critics argue from within the context of religious propositions.  While they do so critically, the axioms attendant to that debate don't fit here.  Their other critics argue the historical claims, and do so from a position of scientific understanding and historical and archaeological scholarship, which is somewhat relevant.

It's relevant because your analogy tells a story completely opposite from what you probably intended.  You compare belief in Apollo to Mormon belief in Jesus and America, but in no way are they similar.  Mormons admit their beliefs are largely religious and unprovable, but we assert strongly that belief in Apollo is strictly an historical and technical determination.  You want desperately to paste propositional or superficial overtones onto it, but under no circumstances is anyone here claiming you must believe Apollo as a propositional statement.  No one here takes Apollo on faith and no one is asking you to.

But just as Mormons, faced with the historical inevitability that their beliefs have little merit outside their church, resort to propositional and ideological promotions to distract from their pseudo-intellectual failure, so have you resorted to ideological handwaving.  In the face of a debate ostensibly on the basis of science, technology, and secular knowledge, you are the one to "break" and dive into belief per se.  Your approach is exactly the "who you gonna believe, me or them?" claim.  Sound familiar?  Aren't you just asking to be taken on faith?

And just as Mormons, along with many other religions, decry the devil and urge us to be righteous in the face of it, you identify your own "devil" to scare people into believing you.  Oh yes, you're very much creating the "devil" of government oppression and malfeasance, and you style yourself as one of the prophets of the "free thinkers" religion.  You're the one who abandoned a debate over observable facts, not we.  You are the one unable to fathom that, aside from any "government" statement, the historical and technical record unequivocally speaks in favor of Apollo and that there exist very many people whose belief in Apollo exists only as a product of reason and not as an expression of faith.  Conversely there exists no hoax believer yet whose belief against Apollo stands on the basis of supportable historical or technical fact, and does not ultimately base itself upon an expression of faith, to wit:  "I have faith that nothing said by the government can be true."  You want to think that anyone who believes something that also happens to be the position of some government must believe only because the government says so.  You are unable to cope with any other reason for belief.  It simply does not exist in your limited view of the world.

Quote
Governments lie, and history is on my side in that regard.

History tells us that governments sometimes lie and sometimes tell the truth.  History also tells us that this is not a property limited to government, but is a property of all humans.  You want to take the world to task for your straw man, specifically that anyone who presumptively believes the government tells the truth is necessarily deluded, and that anyone who can't admit to being deluded is closed-minded.  What you fail to realize is that it's just as delusional and potentially closed-minded to presume the government always lies.  Any such categorical presumption, toward either end, in the face of evidence to the contrary, is necessarily irrational.  In your hurry to pretend to call out everyone for their irrational error, you have simply committed the converse error.

Except in our case it's not what we really believe.  It's the motivation you desperately try to paste onto us.  The error is only your presumption; we hold no such presumption.

Where history ultimately shows that truth or falsehood may prevail and that presumption is unreliable, the only rational approach then is to examine each question in isolation.  Presuming that someone tells the truth may lead to us trusting him hazardously.  Presuming that someone tells a lie may lead to us dismissing him hazardously.  Presumption is thus set aside; we can determine whether someone is telling the truth or lying only by examining the facts pertaining to that question -- and only those.  To attempt conviction or exoneration based on past questions is to fall into the presumptive trap again.  Hence to decide the question of Apollo we examine Apollo alone.  And in doing so, by critical thinking, we find that the evidence overwhelmingly paints the scientists, engineers, and technicians who accomplished Apollo as those most grounded in fact and reason, and the uninformed ideologically-minded conspiracy theorists have no such grounding in fact.  While we acknowledge that humans, including governors, may have lied in the past and may yet lie in the future, we find that the facts show they did not lie about Apollo.

Where Apollo his concerned, history is most certainly not on your side.  Don't pretend it is.
"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams

Offline Mag40

  • Mars
  • ***
  • Posts: 278
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #137 on: January 25, 2013, 02:14:21 PM »
Okay.....so why would they fake it? To be first of course. Even if there were a 100% chance of achieving this....which in itself is a pretty absurd statement, why in heaven's name would they carry on with more missions afterwards?


Offline JayUtah

  • Neptune
  • ****
  • Posts: 3814
    • Clavius
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #138 on: January 25, 2013, 02:19:06 PM »
Not only that, why would they fake a failure? (Apollo 13)
"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams

Offline smartcooky

  • Uranus
  • ****
  • Posts: 1965
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #139 on: January 25, 2013, 02:48:37 PM »
Well, if I were Mr. President, I would respond, "But faking it means that we will also have to create a  perfect hoax. How are we going to create hours of video footage of a wide area with low gravity and no atmosphere? How are we going to ensure that no one notices from radio transmissions that things are not what they seem? How will we prevent other countries from finding out after the fact, and leaving us with egg on our faces? Our chances of success are NOT 100% with a hoax, they're much less than 50/50. So, let's go with the real deal. It'll be cheaper and easier."

Your problem, alexsanchez, is that you assume that creating the hoax is easy. It's not. It would be more difficult, in fact, to fake the landings than to actually do them.


How are we going to create hours of video footage of a wide area with low gravity and no atmosphere?
More to the point, how are we going to create over two hours of CONTINUOUS, uninterrupted video like you have described, that is shown LIVE, as it happened, to hundreds of millions of people all over the world, a number of whom will be engineers and scientists and movie special effects people, who would spot the fakes immediately.

Our chances of success are NOT 100% with a hoax, they're much less than 50/50.
would be more difficult, in fact, to fake the landings than to actually do them.
The chances of success are not even 50/50 they are 0/100. There is no chance of success at all. It is simply impossible to do something requiring technology that does not yet exist. In 1969, the video technology was so crude that pulling off an effective fake of the lunar landings simply would not be possible. You only have to look at a movie like Kubrick's 2001: A Space Odyssey. It was the absolute state of the art in 1968 for visual special effects , and at the time, the space and Lunar scenes all looked very good, and believable.

But as video technologies advance, and we get to see the space scenes in contemporary movies like "Prometheus", we can look back at "2001: A Space Odyssey" and easily see that they were fakes; obvious fakes at that.
If you're not a scientist but you think you've destroyed the foundation of a vast scientific edifice with 10 minutes of Googling, you might want to consider the possibility that you're wrong.

Offline Bob B.

  • Jupiter
  • ***
  • Posts: 819
  • Bob the Excel Guruâ„¢
    • Rocket & Space Technology
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #140 on: January 25, 2013, 03:37:45 PM »
Look people, NASA goes to the president and says, if we try to go to the moon, the chances of success are 50/50.  If we fake it, the chances of success are 100% and nobody will ever suspect us.  What do you want to do Mr. President?

If I were President and these were the options given to me, I'd tell the person suggesting that we fake it to clear out his desk and never come back.  The goal is to be first in space, not to pretend to be.  If 50/50 is the best odds they can give me, then I tell them to bust their butts to increase those odds.  And if in the end we fail, we can at least hold our heads high for having tried our best.  There is no shame in making an honest effort and coming up short.  Faking it is for wimps and cowards.

Alex, perhaps the reason you find it so easy to believe NASA are liars and cheats is because those traits come so naturally to you.

Offline raven

  • Uranus
  • ****
  • Posts: 1650
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #141 on: January 25, 2013, 03:45:36 PM »
I had similar thoughts as well with regard to the alleged need for 2 metres of lead shielding. If that was what was required, why not use that much?
Orion could have easily handled such a payload if necessary.

Offline nomuse

  • Jupiter
  • ***
  • Posts: 859
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #142 on: January 25, 2013, 04:20:47 PM »
Look people, NASA goes to the president and says, if we try to go to the moon, the chances of success are 50/50.  If we fake it, the chances of success are 100% and nobody will ever suspect us.  What do you want to do Mr. President?

If I were President and these were the options given to me, I'd tell the person suggesting that we fake it to clear out his desk and never come back.  The goal is to be first in space, not to pretend to be.  If 50/50 is the best odds they can give me, then I tell them to bust their butts to increase those odds.  And if in the end we fail, we can at least hold our heads high for having tried our best.  There is no shame in making an honest effort and coming up short.  Faking it is for wimps and cowards.

Alex, perhaps the reason you find it so easy to believe NASA are liars and cheats is because those traits come so naturally to you.

Yah.

Considering the twin goals of Apollo were, more-or-less;

1) To show up the Soviets before the rest of the world.  Not a hollow boasting victory; at the time, there was much concern about dozens of tiny developing nations -- with exploitable resources -- that might chose to align with one or the other depending on how strong they looked on the world stage.

2) To jumpstart the American scientific and technical economy; to inspire a new generation of scientists and engineers, to rebuild faltering industries -- to step back into the forefront of science and technology of the world and rebuild the infrastructure educational and manufacturing.

(Which also maintains the technological edge of the military).

And it succeeded in both.

Neither of these goals work very well if you fake the program.  But both are still partially successful even if you blow it.

To detail -- if you are doing fake science and teaching fake science, you don't get a stronger industry, a more technologically advanced military, a technical infrastructure.  What you get by running a massive, massively compartmentalized lie would be, in fact, an increase in graft and incompetence.  And another failed generation in the school house.

If you are doing a fake program, you have to release fake results and you want to go into as little detail as possible.  You want details that sound technical but that's about it.  With a real program, those who pay attention across the world will be -- well, overwhelmed would be the way I'd be -- at the skill and attention to detail of the American space program (and by extension, those American scientists and engineers).

Offline smartcooky

  • Uranus
  • ****
  • Posts: 1965
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #143 on: January 25, 2013, 06:40:52 PM »
2) To jumpstart the American scientific and technical economy; to inspire a new generation of scientists and engineers, to rebuild faltering industries -- to step back into the forefront of science and technology of the world and rebuild the infrastructure educational and manufacturing.

(Which also maintains the technological edge of the military).

And it succeeded in both.

Another thing that young people forget (I'm 57 and most HB's are my children's generation or younger) is the times in which the Space Program and Apollo took place. Its easy to look back now at WW2 and decide that was a long, long time ago, but back on May 25, 1961, when JFK made his famous pledge "by the end of this decade, of landing a man on the Moon and returning him safely to the Earth" , WW2 was not the distant memory it is now. It had been only 16 years earlier, and certainly, its effects on science, industry and the US economy were still being felt.

Apollo and the rest of the Space Program was just the kick that science and industry needed, and as you correctly imply, faking it would not have cut the mustard. You cannot get new technology and scientific advances from fakery
If you're not a scientist but you think you've destroyed the foundation of a vast scientific edifice with 10 minutes of Googling, you might want to consider the possibility that you're wrong.

Offline ka9q

  • Neptune
  • ****
  • Posts: 3014
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #144 on: January 25, 2013, 06:50:46 PM »
there was only a 3 in 4 chance any test pilot during that era would live to the end of his career.
Actually, every test pilot lived to the end of his career. It's just that some didn't live past it...


Offline raven

  • Uranus
  • ****
  • Posts: 1650
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #145 on: January 25, 2013, 06:59:22 PM »
there was only a 3 in 4 chance any test pilot during that era would live to the end of his career.
Actually, every test pilot lived to the end of his career. It's just that some didn't live past it...
My appreciation for grim technicalities approves this.

Offline JayUtah

  • Neptune
  • ****
  • Posts: 3814
    • Clavius
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #146 on: January 25, 2013, 07:12:30 PM »
there was only a 3 in 4 chance any test pilot during that era would live to the end of his career.
Actually, every test pilot lived to the end of his career. It's just that some didn't live past it...

Not that I have a vote, but that seems like it deserves a T-shirt, if only for the sheer morbid humor of it.
"Facts are stubborn things." --John Adams

Offline smartcooky

  • Uranus
  • ****
  • Posts: 1965
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #147 on: January 25, 2013, 07:14:05 PM »
there was only a 3 in 4 chance any test pilot during that era would live to the end of his career.
Actually, every test pilot lived to the end of his career. It's just that some didn't live past it...


One of my favourite aviation sayings...

There are old pilots,
There are bold pilots,
There are no old, bold pilots!
« Last Edit: January 25, 2013, 07:17:08 PM by smartcooky »
If you're not a scientist but you think you've destroyed the foundation of a vast scientific edifice with 10 minutes of Googling, you might want to consider the possibility that you're wrong.

Offline raven

  • Uranus
  • ****
  • Posts: 1650
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #148 on: January 25, 2013, 07:25:00 PM »
The way I heard it first was about mushroom pickers.
The principle still applies.
EDIT: Hey, cool , 256 posts! I'm 8-bit! ;D
« Last Edit: January 25, 2013, 07:26:34 PM by raven »

Offline frenat

  • Mars
  • ***
  • Posts: 460
Re: why was the usa the only one to go to the moon?
« Reply #149 on: January 25, 2013, 08:13:56 PM »
The way I heard it first was about mushroom pickers.
The principle still applies.
EDIT: Hey, cool , 256 posts! I'm 8-bit! ;D
Wouldn't that have been at 255 since you started at 0?
-Reality is not determined by your lack of comprehension.
 -Never let facts stand in the way of a good conspiracy theory.
 -There are no bad ideas, just great ideas that go horribly wrong.