Bob in your simulation you have the dry mass being reduced, what is effecting the dry mass?
The mission reports I used gave the ascent stage's mass at launch, its mass at orbit insertion, and the mass of propellant used. Subtracting the propellant mass from the launch mass, I found that the ascent stage's dry mass at launch was 9.8 lbm more than at orbit insertion. I could not find an explanation for the difference, though I'm guessing it might be RCS propellant. To account for it in the simulation, I just progressively lowered the dry mass during ascent.
Other than that the addition does a good job in describing the situation for normal rational people, I'm not sure that it would satisfy the hunger cravings of the hoaxers.
I know I'll never satisfy the conspiracy theorists, those guys are loons. My goal is twofold: (1) supply an explanation for the rational people, and (2) get it on record that my simulation incorrectly models to first few seconds of flight.