So, a data point in case anyone’s interested...
I live in Texas, just outside of Austin, often described as "the blueberry in the tomato soup." Largely urban, populated mostly by lawyers, musicians, and code monkeys. Strongly liberal, at least by Texas standards. Today I had to drive out to Navasota, which is pretty much the polar opposite - largely rural, lots of farmers and ranchers, very conservative (socially more so than politically, but they do hate the soshulizm), home of billboard-sized yard signs for whichever Republican is running that year. Back in 2016 all the signs were for Trump.
This year there were still plenty of Trump signs, but there were a significant number of Biden signs (including a billboard-sized one in front of one farm), along with Hegar signs (Dem candidate for Senate) and Siegel (House candidate). In both Brenham and Navasota, I’d say it was between 7-3 and 6-4 Republican to Democratic signs, which is remarkable.
I’m not going to say Texas is actually in play, but ... this is not following the pattern of the last few decades.