Several factors make accurate prediction of SPEs difficult. First, solar flares occur without much warning. The magnitude and intensity of a flare are difficult to determine until the event is in progress. The directional emission of particles from the sun further complicates predictions. Since SPEs are relatively directional, SPEs sensed by a terrestrial network may not threaten a Martian transit mission, and conversely, a flare injection of energetic solar particles that threatens a Martian transit mission may not produce particles at Earth.
SPEs pose the greatest threat to unprotected crews in polar, geostationary or interplanetary orbits. To date, the greatest threat to significant exposures to astronauts existed during the Apollo Program. Figure 10. illustrates the variation in timing and magnitude of SPEs that occurred during the course of the Apollo Program. The calculated dose for crewmembers within the command module, within the lunar module or in a space suit performing EVA is represented for each flare. As can be seen in the figure, it is only fortuitous that no significant SPEs occurred during the lunar missions.
Fortunately, most SPEs are relatively short-lived (less than 1-2 days), which allows for relatively small volume "storm shelters" to be feasible. To minimize exposure, the crew would be restricted to the storm shelter during the most intense portion of the SPE, which may last for several hours. Storm shelters with shielding of approximately with 20 g/cm2 or more of water equivalent material will provide sufficient shielding to protect the crew.
https://srag.jsc.nasa.gov/Publications/TM104782/techmemo.htm