The Biden Presidency

[Peter B]

I see now Putin is making ever more overt threats about the use of nuclear weapons.

Which raises the question, is he a bully or a fanatic? Getting that assessment wrong could be catastrophic.

= = = =

And in another development, I noticed something interesting about photos of anti-Putin protests around the world: where the signs weren't in Ukrainian, they were in English - in Thailand, Japan, Belgium, India, Spain, Turkey and Lithuania. It's not just that people around the world are united in their support of Ukraine, they're choosing to do so in a unified way I don't remember seeing before.

[smartcooky]

They can't continue with resistance too much with such a powerful country as Russia. With USA not willing to interfere, and France stating they will give them only weapons, I see a scenario dimilar to Iran and Hizbollah in Lebanon. The result will be that Ukraine will be destroyed, then the hreat countries will sit down and agree together, and the weak will pay the price, unfortunately.

The difference here though, is that economic sanctions had little effect... because Hizbollah and the Iranians were fanatics.. the Russian people not so much.

The ruble has crashed, the Russian stock market has crashed and trading suspended to halt the drop. The Russian economy will go into free-fall, and Putin's access to the billions he needs to keep fighting the war has been frozen. Additionally, all the cash he has dealt out to his pet oligarchs is invested in the west, and those assets are frozen too. Add to this the fact that more and more sports organizations have frozen Russia out, its airliners are pretty much prohibited from flying anywhere in the world, and its grading partners are turning their back on Russia. Its cargo ships will be next.

The Ukraine war may go on for a while yet, but the economic impact on Russia will be severe and long term. I do not think Putin has 100% support from many of the people around him, and actually, it would not surprise me if he got "offed" by some close to him.

[gillianren]

Apparently Putin does have 100% support from the people around him because he's limited himself to being surrounded by sycophants and has shut everyone else out, in part because of COVID-induced paranoia.  Not that he's had it, but because he's terrified that he will.  Hence all those Really Big Tables.

[jfb]

And I’m sure Lindsay Graham shooting off his mouth has done wonders for Putin’s state of mind.

Paranoia will destroy ya, but unfortunately there’s always collateral damage.

[Peter B]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-25/united-states-supreme-court-overturns-roe-v-wade/101183036

Well...damn.

[gillianren]

A bunch of his female friends had to explain to a male friend of mine why so many of us are posting offers to let people from out of state GO CAMPING.  Because he's a single male, and he hadn't known that some states are criminalizing leaving the state to get abortions elsewhere.

[Peter B]

A bunch of his female friends had to explain to a male friend of mine why so many of us are posting offers to let people from out of state GO CAMPING.  Because he's a single male, and he hadn't known that some states are criminalizing leaving the state to get abortions elsewhere.

I'm trying to wrap my head around how such a law would be enforced.

[grmcdorman]

A bunch of his female friends had to explain to a male friend of mine why so many of us are posting offers to let people from out of state GO CAMPING.  Because he's a single male, and he hadn't known that some states are criminalizing leaving the state to get abortions elsewhere.

I'm trying to wrap my head around how such a law would be enforced.

What I've read is that they might do a law like the recent Texas one: private individuals could sue anyone helping a woman get an out-of-state abortion. That said, it was also speculated that this violates the Constitutional right to free travel.

Not that this matters to the more militant anti-abortionists; another article pointed out that the rational for this, Constitutional originalism, also means that we should deny women the right to vote, among others, as that was also not an original Constitutional right.

As a liberal Canadian, I am looking at this whole trend in the US with horror.

[jfb]

This is what 46 years of single-issue voting get you.  Nationwide ban as soon as DeSantis wins in 2024 and the GOP takes both houses back.  Then expect the Court to overturn Obergefell and Griswold too.  They probably won't touch Loving as long as Thomas is on the Court, but as soon as he's kicked they'll nuke it too. 

Hell, don't be surprised if they overturn Brown.

They've won.  The theocratic, xenophobic, racist wing of the GOP has won, and they're going to press that victory for all it's worth.  The current Democratic leadership is politically incompetent to a criminal degree (and has been since Clinton left office).  Problem is, so is "the Squad" (blech) and the rest of the so-called "progressive" wing.  The whole goddamned party is imploding because of unchecked narcissism and privilege and it's own special brand of authoritarian thinking ("everyone should follow me"). 

And this result is only going to accelerate that implosion - cue the finger-pointing and back-stabbing.  Prepare for a few decades in the wilderness, guys.

[Peter B]

This is what 46 years of single-issue voting get you.  Nationwide ban as soon as DeSantis wins in 2024 and the GOP takes both houses back.  Then expect the Court to overturn Obergefell and Griswold too.  They probably won't touch Loving as long as Thomas is on the Court, but as soon as he's kicked they'll nuke it too. 

I was so interested when I read about how the list of precedents Thomas thought should be overturned is missing one - the one which he personally benefits from. Has he explained why he thinks Loving doesn't go with the others?

Hell, don't be surprised if they overturn Brown.

  They'd never!

They've won.  The theocratic, xenophobic, racist wing of the GOP has won, and they're going to press that victory for all it's worth.  The current Democratic leadership is politically incompetent to a criminal degree (and has been since Clinton left office).  Problem is, so is "the Squad" (blech) and the rest of the so-called "progressive" wing.  The whole goddamned party is imploding because of unchecked narcissism and privilege and it's own special brand of authoritarian thinking ("everyone should follow me").

The Republicans have divisions too. They're just perhaps not particularly visible at the moment.

And this result is only going to accelerate that implosion - cue the finger-pointing and back-stabbing.  Prepare for a few decades in the wilderness, guys.

I don't think it's as bad as that. Demographics is the enemy of the Republican Party. And Stacey Abrams has provided the model for how grassroots politics can be successful.

[gillianren]

I was so interested when I read about how the list of precedents Thomas thought should be overturned is missing one - the one which he personally benefits from. Has he explained why he thinks Loving doesn't go with the others?

Because reasons.  Legitimate reasons!

The Republicans have divisions too. They're just perhaps not particularly visible at the moment.

Oh, they're becoming increasingly visible, if you're paying attention.  Look at Liz Cheney.

[jfb]

I don't think it's as bad as that. Demographics is the enemy of the Republican Party. And Stacey Abrams has provided the model for how grassroots politics can be successful.

Demographics won’t matter if they can disenfranchise everyone likely to vote against them. 

Yes, grassroots organizing can be successful, and we need to do more of it in every state of the Union.  Would that the Democratic leadership agreed. 

[Jeff Raven]

This is what 46 years of single-issue voting get you.  Nationwide ban as soon as DeSantis wins in 2024 and the GOP takes both houses back.  Then expect the Court to overturn Obergefell and Griswold too.  They probably won't touch Loving as long as Thomas is on the Court, but as soon as he's kicked they'll nuke it too. 

Hell, don't be surprised if they overturn Brown.

They've won.  The theocratic, xenophobic, racist wing of the GOP has won, and they're going to press that victory for all it's worth.  The current Democratic leadership is politically incompetent to a criminal degree (and has been since Clinton left office).  Problem is, so is "the Squad" (blech) and the rest of the so-called "progressive" wing.  The whole goddamned party is imploding because of unchecked narcissism and privilege and it's own special brand of authoritarian thinking ("everyone should follow me"). 

And this result is only going to accelerate that implosion - cue the finger-pointing and back-stabbing.  Prepare for a few decades in the wilderness, guys.

I think a lot of this is correct. There isn't a Democrat out there right now who could beat DeSantis, and with the court stacked the way it is, decisions are going to continue to go farther and farther right.  The Senate is almost certainly going to flip, and with only a 10 seat majority in the House and the way things are in this country currently, this could easily turn into an all-Republican federal administration.

I also agree about the incompetence of the Democrat leadership. They do not know how to craft a strong message (see 2016), have far too much in-fighting, and make the party seem like a bunch of wimps. Reminds me of an episode of the West Wing where Bruno Gianelli was yelling at Sam and Toby about how Democrats have basically just been taking all of the attacks from the right and asking them not to hurt them. 

I've also wondered for years why they didn't take advantage when they had both houses and the White House to just pass a law making abortion legal at the federal level, instead of relying on Roe v Wade. Major there's a reason (I'm sure someone knows better than I), but it seemed like they were just hoping that things would never change. Then, when the leak happened, they had a desperate to try to pass a law at the 11th hour.  Made them look pathetically disorganized.

[Jeff Raven]

I had the thought the other day that the Biden administration has a similar feel to it as the Carter administration. Obviously there are differences, but there are a number of parallels - inflation, soaring gas prices, declining approval ratings, and the general feeling of lack of confidence in POTUS, just to name some. And we all know what happened after that. 

[gillianren]

Frankly, I'm not sure there isn't a Democrat who could beat DeSantis, given how much people hate DeSantis.  With Trump, it was a lot of, "Well, he says that, but you can't be sure he'd really do it once in office."  With DeSantis, we know.