Syria

[ka9q]

I'm getting a horrible feeling of deja vu. It seems certain that a large number of people were poisoned with some type of cholinesterase inhibitor with hundreds dying, but what real proof is there that the Syrian government is responsible, or even that a banned military nerve gas was used?

Before the US goes off on another disastrous "humanitarian" intervention involving WMD, wouldn't it be nice to have some independent verification that it wasn't the rebels or even some third party with a pesticide like parathion trying to draw the US into the conflict? Or even an accidental release?

The nerve gases aren't the only organophosphates with anticholinesterase activity. The pesticide parathion is also in that category, and while it's far less potent than Sarin, Tabun, etc, it has exactly the same symptoms and can easily kill. I was surprised to find that organophosphate pesticides like parathion are the leading cause of fatal poisonings around the world (I would have thought carbon monoxide) as they are popular for suicides.

One reason for suspicion are the comments by experts that they would have expected the first aid personnel to be poisoned by their victims, but that doesn't seem to have happened. That makes me wonder if it was something less potent than the "nerve gases".

[Echnaton]

The current saber rattling is troubling.

People are rightly concerned about the use of mass weapons on civilians, but ultimately they are just another weapon in a civil war that had already killed many civilians.  Any intervention, presumably another bout of "regime change,"  has to weigh the possible dire results to the population it can cause versus the results of the situation as it is.  The results of past interventions suggest to me that they carries costs to the population that are higher than intervention crusaders will admit.  Getting rid of the secular Ba'athists dictatorship in Syria is far more likely to bring a theocracy or fundamentalist dictator than a democracy.

[ka9q]

Right. I can't say I know much about Syria but it does seem like the Iran-Iraq war in miniature -- on one side, a brutal dictator, on the other, Islamic theocrats. Or Iraq; get rid of the brutal dictator and then act surprised when the theocrats take over, quite likely by election. Doing something just for the sake of doing something is exactly what got us into huge trouble in Iraq.

What about providing decontamination equipment, gas masks, nerve gas antidotes and other medical supplies to the civilian population via NGOs like Doctors Without Borders? Doesn't our so-called "defense" department ever think about true defense? Apparently this isn't the first use of chemical weapons in the Syrian civil war, just the largest so far.

I know the Syrians have other chemical weapons like mustard gas for which there are no antidotes, but masks and other physical barriers are still better than nothing. At least nerve gases usually kill quickly, though survivors can have long-term problems. Mustard gas victims die slowly and in extreme pain. It's truly horrific stuff.

[PetersCreek]

What about providing decontamination equipment, gas masks, nerve gas antidotes and other medical supplies to the civilian population via NGOs like Doctors Without Borders? Doesn't our so-called "defense" department ever think about true defense? Apparently this isn't the first use of chemical weapons in the Syrian civil war, just the largest so far.

Granted, my training in NBC detection, defense, and decontamination is almost two decades out of date but my experience gives me a few ideas about the suggestion...not so much reasons to ditch the idea but rather, challenges.

When it comes to nerve agents (and indeed, other types) just giving people a gas mask isn't the end of it.  It takes training to don one quickly and correctly under stress...more than a flyer or a few minutes of familiarization.  Facial hair makes getting a good seal problematic, at best.  Military gas masks aren't typically available in children's sizes.  Civilian models may not offer adequate filtration versus nerve agents.  Even more serious, many/most military grade nerve agents are also absorbed through the skin, by exposure to gross contamination or aerosolized product.

Field expedient decon doesn't really require a lot of fancy equipment.  It's more about knowing the process: where to setup, how to decon and doff PPE without exposure, doing it in the right order, etc.  Running inexperienced civilians through the line would require a lot of well-trained oversight.

[ka9q]

Well, since the alternative is that said civilians die in large numbers, what's the alternative? Could any kind of meaningful civilian defense be provided?

Of course you have the problem that the Syrian government might not welcome the aid workers even if they're not Yanks or Brits.

[PetersCreek]

Well, since the alternative is that said civilians die in large numbers, what's the alternative? Could any kind of meaningful civilian defense be provided?

Given the challenges I outlined, I don't think providing PPE is really much of an alternative.  I guesstimate that the number of casualties under either scenario would not differ all that much.  That's the thing about chemical weapons that makes them so much a weapon of terror when used against (or in proximity to) civilians.  It's wickedly difficult to defend civpops against them.

I think the best help is to aggressively dissuade their use.  Yes, it's ugly but it's an ugly affair all around.

[ka9q]

I'm reading up on these things. I already knew a moderate amount about chemical weapons but I still can't get over just how incredibly toxic some of these substances can be.

At least Sarin and its relatives are unstable molecules that break down (hydrolyze) rapidly in contact with water, especially if it's alkaline. So it's at least possible to make the stuff harmless, unlike heavy metals and radioactive isotopes.