Author Topic: Shuttle longevity?  (Read 10993 times)

Offline mako88sb

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Shuttle longevity?
« on: June 29, 2015, 12:31:06 PM »
I remember the first article I read in the National Geographic about the Shuttle Columbia before it's maiden launch describing how each one would be good for at least 100 missions. Of course, the 50 launches per year that NASA was hoping for never happened and the most missions ever was by Discovery at 39. The newest one, Endeavor, only completed 25 missions. Even though they well exceeded the number of years they were originally intended for, the actual hours of flight time is relatively small. It seems to me that they still had lots of life left in them and if money wasn't an issue, they would be good for quite awhile. Just wondering if others know more about the subject. I understand that replacement parts were becoming an issue so maybe that was the biggest limiting factor besides the cost.

Offline Allan F

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Re: Shuttle longevity?
« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2015, 01:28:34 PM »
They were extremely expensive to relaunch. Millions of man-hours of maintenance between each launch.
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Offline mako88sb

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Re: Shuttle longevity?
« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2015, 02:34:41 PM »
Yes, I was a bit surprised to see the average launch was about 450 million dollars. That's the official number but some say it was more like a billion.

Offline Echnaton

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Re: Shuttle longevity?
« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2015, 02:57:08 PM »
My recollection of the government authorized accounting for the STS was so disconnected from actual costs and cash flow it would have made Enron blush.  It was based first on the marginal procurements and expenditures for each flight, including labor.  The infrastructure to support space launch capability (mostly labor IIRC) was not fully accounted for and the broader overhead of NASA, like security, was entirely left out of the program budget.  Even if supporting the JSC or KSC was the primary reason for the overhead.

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Offline mako88sb

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Re: Shuttle longevity?
« Reply #4 on: June 30, 2015, 02:46:20 PM »
They were extremely expensive to relaunch. Millions of man-hours of maintenance between each launch.

I've been trying to find a detailed breakdown about the maintenance costs of the Shuttles but not having much luck. It would be interesting to see what was forecast during the designing phase and the actual numbers.

Offline smartcooky

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Re: Shuttle longevity?
« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2015, 05:19:20 PM »
My recollection of the government authorized accounting for the STS was so disconnected from actual costs and cash flow it would have made Enron blush.  It was based first on the marginal procurements and expenditures for each flight, including labor.  The infrastructure to support space launch capability (mostly labor IIRC) was not fully accounted for and the broader overhead of NASA, like security, was entirely left out of the program budget.  Even if supporting the JSC or KSC was the primary reason for the overhead.

For those who don't remember how brazen Enron was, they engineered a way to book profits off the increase in the price of their own stock while insulating the income statement from share price declines. 

This seems quite reasonable to me if you are comparing the STS with other launch systems. Fully accounting this seems a but like budgeting the cost of maintaining your driveway, garage, and burglar alarm as part of the cost of running your car!!

You can't say, "it costs X dollars in infrastructure and manpower to run the the STS Lauch System, so if we switch to the XYZ Launch System we can save all that money", because the XYZ Launch System will still involve infrastructure and manpower costs. The question that really needs asking is, will STS' replacement, SLS be cheaper to run and give you a bigger bang for your buck, and if so will the cheaper costs be enough to offset the initial, research, development and infrastructure set-up costs over the lifetime of the SLS.

On another issue, the cancelling of the STS program has sounded the death knell for the most successful science spacecraft ever launched, the Hubble Space Telescope. Without STS to run repair, maintenance and upgrade missions, HST will probably fail, and I don't believe SLS will be up and running in time to save it.
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Offline Echnaton

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Re: Shuttle longevity?
« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2015, 05:53:40 PM »
This seems quite reasonable to me if you are comparing the STS with other launch systems. Fully accounting this seems a but like budgeting the cost of maintaining your driveway, garage, and burglar alarm as part of the cost of running your car!!

That would seem to be a common practice in government accounting, where expenditure are matched to budget line items.  So if the line is not specifically nominally for the STS, but instead is allocated to maintaining a program called "space flight ability" or something, then the expenditure is not for the STS.  But real life cost accounting says that if you are spending on a facility that primarily serves one project, then the overhead should primarily be allocated to the project.  In more the more practical terms, the cost for renting or owning a garage, the building maintenance crew, the mechanics, chauffeur and the car wash staff, all of which could be dramatically reduced by not owning a car, should be allocated to transportation expenses in your budget.
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Offline Halcyon Dayz, FCD

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Re: Shuttle longevity?
« Reply #7 on: July 01, 2015, 07:48:35 AM »
Wasn't that the cause of the dispute between the GAO and NASA about the cost of the Apollo Programme?
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Offline Echnaton

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Re: Shuttle longevity?
« Reply #8 on: July 01, 2015, 09:15:46 AM »
Wasn't that the cause of the dispute between the GAO and NASA about the cost of the Apollo Programme?

I am sure there was some dispute about Apollo too, but I don't know.  The difference arises from the difference between governmental accounting and managerial cost accounting.  Government accounting has a greater emphasis on fitting expenditures to budget lines that are based on non-financial goals as opposed to standard businesses accounting tracking of costs, and determine ROI and other financial measures.   It is a reason one should be skeptical of government claims of program costs and ROI.
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Offline bknight

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Re: Shuttle longevity?
« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2015, 07:21:35 PM »

On another issue, the cancelling of the STS program has sounded the death knell for the most successful science spacecraft ever launched, the Hubble Space Telescope. Without STS to run repair, maintenance and upgrade missions, HST will probably fail, and I don't believe SLS will be up and running in time to save it.
I saw a documentary, where the brains are programming robots to do the next repair.  I only hope they do a better job at programming than they did at measuring the curvature of the mirror.  In another thought I hope and pray the new Webb telescope is checked out before launch so we don't find out later it too can't do the job originally intended because of a manufacturing or design problem.
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Offline ka9q

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Re: Shuttle longevity?
« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2015, 10:52:10 AM »
High cost wasn't the shuttle's only problem. It was also inherently unsafe, and could not be easily fixed.