Assuming 100%, true "gas-n-go" reusability on the order of a modern airliner, then yeah, I can see it becoming one of the cheapest launch options over time (if not the cheapest), at least on a per-Kg basis. You have to amortize the cost of building the thing over multiple launches, but eventually all you're paying for is propellant, staff, and pad expenses, which are not that much relative to the vehicle itself. That becomes especially true if they can co-manifest multiple payloads like Ariane typically does (which they should be able to do given the (frankly insane) volume and lift capability).
It just has to, you know, work as advertised.
Last night I realized that this hits close to the original vision of the Space Shuttle, which was originally supposed to have a flyback booster and offer true "gas-n-go" reusability, but not on this scale. And of course, the STS orbiter was never meant to leave LEO - Elon claims the BFS can go anywhere from LEO to the outer solar system and back. What had me
-ing was the idea that it has enough Delta-V to get to the Moon, land, and come back
without refueling. That's kinda staggering. This thing is going to be
effing huge.
Honestly, what gives me the cold pricklies is the idea of transitioning their entire business onto this new architecture. It's a hell of a risk. But of course, the only way they can pay for it is to make it
the system.
