North Korea

[Obviousman]

I'm wondering what peoples thoughts are on the North Korean situation?

In general, I support economic sanctions and diplomatic methods. I have misgivings, though, in this case.

1. Economic sanctions - for the most part - tend to hurt the people rather than the leadership. The "Supreme Leader" won't be going without. The DPRK people, though, will face even more shortages.

2. I have heard some quarters say that "the people" will rise up against Kim Jong-un if things get too bad. I say this is complete bull. They are an oppressed people who cannot remove such an entrenched regime without external help.
 
3. We normally talk about stopping developments but we are now facing a situation where if some type of action is not taken in the near future, we face an "unstable" regime that has the ability to project WMD-type power at an increasing distance.

What do people think?

[Bryanpoprobson]

It's a dangerous situation with a madman in control in North Korea and his equal in control in the US. The point on sanctions is well founded and the best that could be achieved from that would be some form of uprising. That said, the population is "so" downtrodden it is a very unlikely scenario. In all, the likely hood of some military intervention increases daily, with the most likely option some form of strategic takeout of their nuclear capability. It is probably the most destabilising situation since the Cuban missile crisis and I can see no easy resolution path. The best hope must be in dialogue with the Chinese, in the hope that they can bring some pressure to bear on the regime. 

[Zakalwe]

Its a dangerous situation that we've got ourselves into.

We've got a megalomaniac fat buffoon with a bad haircut with his finger on the nuclear button. Meanwhile in North Korea they got Kim Jong Un... 

[molesworth]

 

Its a dangerous situation that we've got ourselves into.

We've got a megalomaniac fat buffoon with a bad haircut with his finger on the nuclear button. Meanwhile in North Korea they got Kim Jong Un... 

If we weren't able to laugh about it, we'd all be crying... 

However, I'm sure there are multiple safeguards in place to prevent the US President from unilaterally launching an attack.  I'm not so sure those same protections exist in North Korea...

[LunarOrbit]

However, I'm sure there are multiple safeguards in place to prevent the US President from unilaterally launching an attack.

I'm not so sure about that. From what I've heard there aren't many restrictions on a President's ability to launch nukes because there wouldn't necessarily be time to discuss it or take a vote.

I think the "checks & balances" in this case should have been the voters, who shouldn't have elected an irrational madman in the first place.

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[smartcooky]

One part of me says that the rest of the world needs to do "something" about this idiot before its too late and he really can strike anywhere in the world

Another part of me is horrified by the implications of just what that  "sometihng" would need to be.

One thing I am reasonaby sure of is that the US Navy will have a number of their Ohio Class ballistic missile submarines in the area. If DPRK launches a nuke strike on Japan or Guam, the retaliation wiill be swift and decisive.

[Geordie]

[...] The best hope must be in dialogue with the Chinese, in the hope that they can bring some pressure to bear on the regime.

China sure is waiting until late in the day for that.

Paranoidly I think the Chinese are enviously eyeing the USA's position as a superpower and will not step up to help in a meaningful manner but rather they are hoping for the US to get mired in yet another conflict, hastening their UK and USSR-like decline into Great Power status.

<Rhetorical question goes here ---> Why has China allowed the DPRK to develop, test, and perhaps deploy nuclear weapons and ICBMs?

[gillianren]

There was an expert about Korea on The Daily Show last night.  Worth watching, if you can.

[Bryanpoprobson]

China sure is waiting until late in the day for that.

Paranoidly I think the Chinese are enviously eyeing the USA's position as a superpower and will not step up to help in a meaningful manner but rather they are hoping for the US to get mired in yet another conflict, hastening their UK and USSR-like decline into Great Power status.

<Rhetorical question goes here ---> Why has China allowed the DPRK to develop, test, and perhaps deploy nuclear weapons and ICBMs?

On a program here in the UK it has been stated that further sanctions (if China were to apply them as well as the west) would lead to the collapse of the regime. Apparently China would rather have a stable NK with nuclear weapons than a chaotic collapse of the current regime. 

[raven]

To be honest, would you WANT an unstable regime with nukes? Another part of it might be that NK's human rights violations make the PRC look good in comparison.

[Geordie]

However, I'm sure there are multiple safeguards in place to prevent the US President from unilaterally launching an attack.

I'm not so sure about that. [...] I think the "checks & balances" in this case should have been the voters, who shouldn't have elected an irrational madman in the first place.

A majority of the voters voted for Mrs. Clinton. I think (hope?) this fiasco shines a very bright light on the Electoral College, which as I understand it was included in the election process precisely to stop such buffoonery  - a way for a small elite to pick whomever they want to pick, ignoring the wishes of the voters. Irony at its finest.

[Obviousman]

To be honest, would you WANT an unstable regime with nukes? Another part of it might be that NK's human rights violations make the PRC look good in comparison.

Do you really consider the present DPRK regime "stable"? I suppose there is going to be some discussion as to what we mean by "stable".

[sandopan]

One part of me says that the rest of the world needs to do "something" about this idiot before its too late and he really can strike anywhere in the world

Another part of me is horrified by the implications of just what that  "sometihng" would need to be.

I think we have little choice but to live with it.

In terms of military action, no country in the world, and possibly all of the countries put together, are in a position to replace the US government forcibly.  Maybe that will change one day, but right now, the "regime change" solution is unthinkable.

Economic sanctions?  The US is a big country, and foreign trade is a relatively small part of its GDP.  Sure, trade sanctions would hurt, but would it be enough?  Look at how sanctioned Iran and North Korea have been, for years, and it hasn't dissuaded them from pursuing the things that are getting them embargoed.  Besides, this idiot largely campaigned on a promise to put a trade embargo on the US; so how threatening would it be to him for the rest of the world to threaten to do to the US what he has promised to do to the US himself?

Diplomacy?  The US isn't an advice-taking sort of country at the best of times, and even less so under its current Führer.  Their attitude is, we tell the rest of the world what to do, and they do it, or face a range of sanctions up to and including military action and overthrow of their governments.  I don't think politely asking the US to behave better will have much effect.

Bad as the situation is, I think we have little choice but to live with it.

[sandopan]

Do you really consider the present DPRK regime "stable"? I suppose there is going to be some discussion as to what we mean by "stable".

As the investment people like to say, "past performance is no guarantee of future results", but historically the regime has been remarkably stable.

The problem with more repressive regimes is, if you don't let the steam out of the boiler every once a while, they eventually blow - sometimes quite suddenly.

[sandopan]

Another part of it might be that NK's human rights violations make the PRC look good in comparison.

Human rights activists are pretty uniform in placing North Korea at the top of their "bad" list.  The percentage of people incarcerated is comparable to the US, but their judicial system makes the US look good by comparison.

But North Korea has very little global reach.  Obviously they're a huge threat to South Korea, and to a lesser extent, to Japan.  Possibly they are a threat to the US now, depending on how accurately they can aim their missiles.  Other than that - well, if you ask people around the world of whom they're afraid, the country they usually mention is not North Korea.