#1: of course that is speculation, but then again what the hell explanation are you offering?
#2: oxygen current mainly struck the base of the pole housing and very little of the fabric. AFAIK, The vertical upright pole is not held tightly in the ground housing. Oxygen going to ground could simply be hitting the lower support and causing the flag pole itself to just shift its orientation very slightly.
#1: Feasibility speculation is all you NEED to do here... just show that there exists a feasible/viable hypothesis that explains all 8 motions.
#2: Is this the most viable hypothesis you can come up with, to cover the entire 175 seconds period.
Strengths:
1. Both EVA2 prep and Launch Prep show a flag big motion upon opening the hatch, when PSI was about 0.1. At least they are consistent.
Potential weaknesses:
1. Does the Pole have enough profile area catching this wind to make it shift in a way that would take the flag off screen?
a. Are you suggesting that it rotates it off? Or Tilts it off?
b. What force then brings it back on screen? 4X
2. Is PSI 0.01 on opening the hatch going to cause this type of flag motion?
3. What caused the 4 movements which began 161 seconds earlier? Including the force of bringing in screen.
4. What explains the top slant of the flag itself... why is it slanting off screen?
As you derive your answers, make note of the expected PSI inside the cabin after each depressurization. Also to note, 1 PSI of cabin pressure weighs 1 lb each. (7 lbs total, at 5 PSI)
Calculate the surface area of the pole, along with a simple model to estimate the pole's aerodynamic profile, and the mass of the flag... just estimates to work with for now -- see if even a generous model can justify flag motion based upon oxygen hitting it.