Well, this is why I should stay out of the predictioneering business.
After losing the 2013 England-Australia series 3-0, Australia turned things around in about four months and won the return series in Australia 5-0. While there was a lot of cricket involved, I think the issues behind the turnaround are worthy of wider discussion.
Up to the mid-2000s Australia was the pre-eminent cricket team in the world, with world-best batsmen and bowlers. Then, Australia unexpectedly stumbled in 2005 to lose a series in England, the first time England had beaten Australia in a series in nearly 20 years. Australia returned the favour in the next English tour of Australia (2006-07), but England then handily won the 2009 and 2010-11 series. This coincided with the retirement of many of the Australian players from the 2006-07 series. Suddenly Australia was a middle-ranking cricket power.
In the summer of 2012-13, Australia lost a three test series to South Africa, then seemingly returned to form to beat Sri Lanka.
Then came the debacle of a 4-0 defeat in India. What made things even more ignominious was that after the second test four members of the Australian squad were made ineligible for selection for the third test by the coach for a breach of discipline - in this case a failure to complete homework. One of those so infracted was the vice captain. I can't imagine much which would have been a greater distraction to a losing team on a tough overseas tour.
In a way it wasn't a surprise that Australia lost to England so comprehensively four months later.
Things going wrong included:
1. Sacking the coach less than a month before the first test against England. Mickey Arthur had a good reputation as South African coach, but it seems his style just didn't match that of the Australian team. The period of Arthur's stewardship coincided with the lowest period in Australia's rankings. I get the impression that as the team's performance decreased, Arthur imposed his will all the more strongly, and the players rebelled in the form of discipline breaches, as well as still not improving in performance. His replacement, former Australian player Darren Lehmann was widely praised, but it seems he also took a while to build a relationship with the team.
2. Continued ill-discipline. This manifested itself in a number of ways, both off-field and on-field. The worst of the off-field incidents involved Australian players Dave Warner taking a swing at English player Joe Root when they happened to run into each other in a pub. Warner was stood down for the first two tests, and his later selection was part of the problem of finding a consistent batting line-up. On-field, a couple of players wasted valuable Umpire Decision Reviews when they would have been better to accept the umpire's original decision (
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umpire_Decision_Review_System).
3. Erratic selections. Australia had a different fast bowling trio in each of the five tests (actually a quartet in the fifth test) with only one bowler playing in all five tests. Australia also dropped their best performing spin bowler for the first test, only to reinstate him in the third test for the rest of the series. And the batting line-up changed in every test too. With no sense of consistency within the team it's not surprising their performances were erratic too.
4. Luck. Better lucky than good, I suppose. But England certainly seemed to get the edge in this department - technical problems, the occasional umpiring decision and the weather being three examples.
Despite all this, and despite losing the series 3-0, Australia still posted the two highest team scores of the series (in the two drawn games) and led England after the first innings in two of the three games they lost.
It was an odd feeling. On the one hand Australia seemed to have been comprehensively beaten in the series and to have often been scrambling to keep in contention in individual matches. On the other hand the series margin somehow seemed to flatter England. It was as though the English did only just as much as they needed to win the series.
Despite all this, at the time it seemed to me that Australia was in a very deep hole.