What if Gavrilo Princip had missed?

[AstroBrant]

Without the assassination, what if war did spark for a couple of years later? Might Russia's improved position have made it quicker? Or would the consequences have been worse with an expansionist Russia (what a ludicrous concept) dominating central Europe after conquering Germany?

One possibility: World War II and the Holocaust would not have happened. Adolph Hitler would have been an obscure struggling artist. The Soviets would have been the first to land a man on the moon.

Or, World War II would have happened, but not until the 60's. There would have been no moon landings. Most of us would be dead or not ever born.

[BazBear]

I find it ironic that Princip, according to his shooting instructor and other witnesses, was a piss poor shot; while Franz Ferdinand was an accomplished marksman, having bagged many thousands of game animals.

[gillianren]

One possibility: World War II and the Holocaust would not have happened. Adolph Hitler would have been an obscure struggling artist. The Soviets would have been the first to land a man on the moon.

Or, World War II would have happened, but not until the 60's. There would have been no moon landings. Most of us would be dead or not ever born.

I tend to blame the Treaty of Versailles for World War II.  Had the war ended differently, the second one might not have happened.  Once that treaty was signed, a second was inevitable.

[ka9q]

I tend to blame the Treaty of Versailles for World War II.  Had the war ended differently, the second one might not have happened.  Once that treaty was signed, a second was inevitable.

At least it sure seems that way now.

[Luke Pemberton]

I tend to blame the Treaty of Versailles for World War II.  Had the war ended differently, the second one might not have happened.  Once that treaty was signed, a second was inevitable.

That's the contemporary view with historians, and the situation was compounded in Germany by the economic conditions of the 30s. The world was broke after the Wall Street crash, Germany was hit much harder because of reparations which polarised German politics between Communism and Fascism. Add to that the heady mix of Germany's shame with their loss of territory, the military free Rhineland imposed by the Allies, historical anti-semitism and you have the conditions for Hitler and his thugs to rise to power.

Hitler also used much of Versailles to propagate myths about German treatment at the hands of the Allied powers known as 'War Guilt Clause.' This is where Hitler seized upon German resentment that Germany had not actually been militarily defeated but was sold out by its politicians who accepted full responsibility for World War 1.

But then you know all this 

[gillianren]

My favourite series of mystery novels was written between the wars; the main character is also something of an occasional diplomat.  There are interesting bits and pieces dropped in that tend to confirm that a war was coming, and the author was not herself a diplomat.  She was an academic.

[Luke Pemberton]

It is also interesting that long before the architects of Munich were laying Hitler's path for war, Churchill warned of  acquiescence to fascist demands and where it would lead. He was deeply concerned about the rise of fascism in Europe long before Chamberlain held the piece of paper aloft. During his wilderness years he wrote extensively about the abyss that Europe was facing.

[twik]

My favourite series of mystery novels was written between the wars; the main character is also something of an occasional diplomat.  There are interesting bits and pieces dropped in that tend to confirm that a war was coming, and the author was not herself a diplomat.  She was an academic.

I asked my father who was a youngster during the thirties if they ever thought a second war was coming.

"Of course!" he said. "We knew it was coming for years."

"How?"

"Every time we saw a newsreel of thousands of people standing there chanting Hitler's name," he said. "And Hitler screaming about Germany regaining her greatness. We knew that wasn't going to lead to anything good."

So, it was there for those with eyes to see. I'm really more surprised by the number of very well-educated, well-connected people who saw those same demonstrations and didn't see anything alarming about them.

[Luke Pemberton]

"Every time we saw a newsreel of thousands of people standing there chanting Hitler's name," he said. "And Hitler screaming about Germany regaining her greatness. We knew that wasn't going to lead to anything good."

Quite a give away really. Predicting the war was one thing, but I wonder how many people would have predicted the genocide in the 1930s?

[twik]

"Every time we saw a newsreel of thousands of people standing there chanting Hitler's name," he said. "And Hitler screaming about Germany regaining her greatness. We knew that wasn't going to lead to anything good."

Quite a give away really. Predicting the war was one thing, but I wonder how many people would have predicted the genocide in the 1930s?

The mind can play funny tricks.

I once met someone through some friends at a party. Afterwards, someone said that they were horrified he'd been brought to the party. I knew that I vaguely hadn't liked this person, but asked why.

"Because he was talking about stealing cars for a chop shop!" the other person said.

The funny thing was, until they said that, though, I hadn't really registered what he was talking about. Instead, my mind had sort of gone, "Decent people don't steal cars, and definitely don't brag about it. He must be making a bad joke. Move along, nothing to see here..." But when it was pointed out to my face, I realized that no, he hadn't been joking.

I think Hitler was given the same treatment by a lot of people during the 30's. He couldn't really *mean* what he was saying, could he? It was just political posturing. Not even worth registering.

[Glom]

At the beginning of 1918, Germany looked on the up somewhat. They'd pasted Russia with the Treaty of Brest-litovsk and held their ground in the West. The reversal of fortune came quite suddenly relatively speaking. No wonder the stab in the myth about the successful German military being betrayed by the politicians gained traction.

It was a reason why the Instrument of Unconditional Surrender at the end of the sequel was signed by the military commanders, so noone could allege they were sold out.

The great irony about German bitterness over the territorial losses was both that the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk was harsher than Versaille and that German irredentism in the 30s and 40s ultimately led to Germany getting an even harsher round of territorial losses through Potsdam. If Germany ever tried it again, all that would be left would be Dusseldorf.

[ka9q]

This is where Hitler seized upon German resentment that Germany had not actually been militarily defeated but was sold out by its politicians who accepted full responsibility for World War 1.

That was the "stab in the back" myth. Naturally, Jews held the knife.

Even the historians who have studied the Holocaust for their entire careers don't think the Nazis had planned it in advance quite the way it happened. It came in stages, and one does wonder what would have happened had the war not started and progressed when and how it did.

[Luke Pemberton]

Even the historians who have studied the Holocaust for their entire careers don't think the Nazis had planned it in advance quite the way it happened.

I fully agree. My knowledge is certainly not on a par with historians, but the literature I have read certainly suggests that the final solution was a process that took turns in reaction to events. There are various articles that suggest that the full horror of the final solution finally unfolded at Wannsee.

The Villa, The Lake, The Meeting: Wannsee and the Final Solution is certainly worth a read.

I have also read Denying the Holocaust. So sad that the latter even had cause to be written.

[ka9q]

Yes, it is sad. One of the best documented historical events of the 20th century (except maybe for Apollo) and still some people refuse to accept it on ideological grounds.

Like a lot of people I do wonder how things might have been different had the war started at a different time, or if it had progressed differently. I can't even say whether the Holocaust would have been worse or better than it was.

[Glom]

I went to Tower of London today. It was absolutely rammed. So many bloody tourists come to see the poppy moat.