Author Topic: American civil rights  (Read 31241 times)

Offline Luke Pemberton

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #30 on: February 19, 2015, 03:20:09 PM »
C-Span used to carry question for the Prime Minister.  A far more lively event.  I always enjoyed watching Margret Thatcher and less so John Major. I cut my cable about that time so never got to see Tony Blair. 

One of my favourite moments from Blair, but the Tories didn't really help themselves:

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Offline Echnaton

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #31 on: February 19, 2015, 06:11:17 PM »
Maybe fairness was the wrong word,
It is a word whose definition is flexible enough to include whatever is necessary to get the speaker what he really, really wants. 
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Offline gillianren

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #32 on: February 20, 2015, 03:57:19 AM »
I keep having to explain to my friends that the US is a federation of states, and those states elect the President through the Electoral College.  The framers of the Constitution recognized that a straight numerical vote would have given an unfair advantage to the more populated states (New York and Massachusetts in the 1770's?).

Virginia and Pennsylvania, as I recall.  Massachusetts to a lesser extent.  But at the time, New York was still pretty rural.  Most of Manhattan was still uninhabited.
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Online Peter B

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #33 on: February 20, 2015, 05:28:20 AM »

Yeah, its pretty frustrating listening to the back and forth bickering while nothing gets done.

I generally prefer nothing get done in Washington since I find neither sides ideas to be particularly compelling.  So for the most part I avoid the frustration by ignoring the bickering and reducing my expectations for political good manners.  And voting for someone else when I can.

My understanding, though (and feel free to correct me if I'm wrong), is that the Congressional gridlock is a problem for government agencies like NASA, because they have little certainty over their budgets, and annual threats of shutdowns play havoc with longer-term projects.

Presumably if NASA staff are working to prepare a rocket for launch when a shutdown comes, then it's down tools and hope things don't deteriorate too much over the shutdown.
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Online Peter B

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #34 on: February 20, 2015, 06:11:33 AM »
...We had a referendum on alternative voting in the UK in 2011. It was rejected and we keep the first past the post system.

It's a bit different in Australia and in our states.

At the Federal level our House of Reps is like the HoC, and the Senate equivalent to the HoL (except that its members are elected).

For the Reps, we have preferential voting, which is similar to FPTP, except that a candidate has to get more than 50% of the vote to be elected. To do this, we voters number all candidates in order of preference. Then, if no candidate gets 50% of the vote, the candidate with the fewest first preferences is eliminated, and their votes distributed among the remaining candidates on the basis of their second preferences. If still no candidate has 50% of the vote, you repeat the process, and so on until one of the last two candidates must reach 50%.

For the Senate it's a bit more complicated, and also since the last election more controversial. The Senate has 76 seats - 12 for each state and 2 for each territory. At each election half the state-based senators and all the territory-based senators face election, meaning each state's voters have to choose six senators. In order to be elected a candidate has to achieve a quota of 1/7th of the popular vote. If they get more than one quota the excess is transferred to the next party candidate on the ticket. This is usually good enough to elect five of the six senators. Working out who gets the last seat is tricky, and this is where the controversy has arisen.

Once all the quotas have been distributed a process of elimination similar to the preferential system for the Reps is used, with the candidate attracting the lowest popular vote being eliminated and their preferences distributed. Lather, rinse and repeat until finally one of the remaining candidates accumulates enough votes to get a quota.

Because of a rise in the number of candidates in Senate elections, back in the 1980s there was a change to the electoral process. Instead of numbering all the candidates in numerical order (potentially over 100 candidates in some cases), voters were allowed to place a 1 against one party, and the preferences would be distributed in accordance with a preference list determined by that party. Now the order of preferences determined by each party became a secret game before each election, with all the various parties lobbying each other to get favourable positions on each others' preference tickets.

Then came along this guy about 10 years ago, whose name I forget, but whose nickname is The Preference Whisperer. His skill was maths, and he seemed to have a far better instinct for how the voting system worked than anyone else. What he did was facilitate negotiations between minor parties and so-called micro-parties to lock in preference deals that seem to have a lot more power than people would expect.

As a result, a couple of candidates were elected to the Senate at the last Federal election despite getting minuscule primary votes. Instead they got their quota by accumulating the transferred votes of other micro-parties as they were eliminated from the count.

The sinister aspect of this is that few voters knew anything about these micro-parties, and almost certainly not their preference lists. However many of these parties had names which would be likely to appeal to some aspect of the community.

Hypothetically it wouldn't take much work to set up a perfectly legal bunch of parties, say, the Loonie Left Party, the Crazy Right Party, the Maisy Middle Party, the [name your hobby] Party, then arrange preference swapping deals between all of them. Come the election, some voters will vote for each party simply on the basis of the party's name. Then, when the votes are counted, their swapped preferences will give one of these parties' candidates a good chance of getting the last Senate seat in that state.

The significance of this lies in the power of the Senate to block the government's proposed legislation.

Back in 2004 the Liberal-National coalition won control of both the House of Reps (thus forming government) and the Senate, meaning in theory they could guarantee the passage of all their legislation. But in the four elections since then the party in power has not had control of the Senate, with the balance of power held by some combination of minor and micro parties.

Arguably, the Labor government of Julia Gillard following the 2010 election did the best job of getting its legislation passed in the Senate. This was despite operating as a very rare minority government in the Reps (you might remember that on the old Apollo Hoax board I started a thread about that election and the aftermath).

By contrast, the current Liberal-National coalition government under Tony Abbott has a solid majority in the Reps, but has had a devil of a time getting its legislation through a hostile Senate. The government's first budget was delivered in May last year, and now, eight months down the track still some of the associated legislation hasn't been passed. The main problem seems to be the government's unwillingness to, you know, negotiate. They seem to have the attitude that because they have a majority in the Reps, the Senate should just sit back and do the government's bidding. The thing is that the minor and micro party Senators represent such a broad swathe of political views it surely shouldn't be too hard to find some combination of Senators to support each piece of legislation.

And a bigger problem for the government is that things are likely to get worse. Over the last 40 years the proportion of votes given to non-major parties in the Senate has grown steadily from ~10% to ~30%.

Quote
I'm not sure any voting method is entirely fair, but I'm glad of one thing. At least I get a say in who I choose to lead my country, despite it not being completely perfect.

Quite true.

Another difference between Australia and most other countries is that voting is compulsory. Yet despite most people only having to spend half an hour or so twice every three years undertaking their civic duties, we still manage to find some people willing to complain about having to vote.

Most voting centres in Australia are local government primary schools. Election day is therefore an opportunity for schools to run a sausage sizzle and maybe a raffle to raise some cash from locals. So my message to people whingeing about having to go out and vote is to look at it as an opportunity to do something for your local school.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2015, 06:15:35 AM by Peter B »
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Offline smartcooky

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #35 on: February 20, 2015, 06:17:02 AM »
The Senate has 76 seats - 12 for each state and 2 for each territory

QLD 12
NSW 12
VIC 12
SA 12
WA 12
TAS 12
NT 2
-----
TOT 74

What is the other territory?


ETA: Never mind, I just realised it must be ACT
« Last Edit: February 20, 2015, 06:32:13 AM by smartcooky »
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Offline ka9q

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #36 on: February 20, 2015, 06:18:04 AM »
Every now and then critics will argue that the Electoral College should be scrapped and that presidential elections should be decided based on popular vote.  They claim the Electoral College gives a numeric advantage to the smaller states.   On the other hand, the winner-take-all method of voting favors the larger states.  Personally, I prefer the weighting of the Electoral College, where each state has a number of electors equal to its number of congressional members (both houses).
The electoral college does give extra weight to the voters in smaller (in population) states. This is indisputable.

Each state is given a number of electors equal to the number of its representatives in the House of Representatives plus those in the Senate (two). Wyoming, the least populous state, has 584,000 people and three presidential electors. This is about 195,000 people per elector.

(Three electors is the minimum per state. Non-state territories get none, except for the special case of the District of Columbia. It gets three electoral votes even though it has no voting representation in the Congress. Despite having a larger population than Vermont and Wyoming, half of it is black so it is very unlikely to ever gain Congressional representation as long as the Congress remains so conservative.)

California, the most populous state, has 38.8 million people and 55 electors. That's 705,000 people per elector. I.e., each citizen of Wyoming is given 3.6 times the weight of each citizen of California in a presidential election.

One reason is obvious: the inclusion of two senators in each state's electoral count triples the weight of a small state, while having very little effect on a large state. A second is that every state gets at least one representative in the House no matter how small its population. The most populous state with only a single Representative (and 3 electoral votes) is Montana, with a little more than a million people, almost twice as many as Wyoming.

The electoral college was originally created because it was thought that the people should not vote directly for an office as important as the presidency. Eventually, however, each state (with very few exceptions) passed laws requiring each of its electors to pledge their votes to whoever won the popular vote in that state. It has therefore become what we communication engineers call a "nonlinear combining function" and making it possible for the winner of the popular vote to still lose the electoral college vote. This actually doesn't happen all that often; the last time was when George W. Bush beat Al Gore in 2000, an event known as an "electoral college inversion". Even when an inversion doesn't happen, the nonlinearity tends to make the elections look much more skewed than they really are. 

Imagine how different the world would be today if we elected our presidents by straight popular vote.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2015, 06:26:42 AM by ka9q »

Online Peter B

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #37 on: February 20, 2015, 06:27:05 AM »
Any voting system will be sufficiently fair if all interested parties have an opportunity to understand the rules before the election and address unfairness at that time.

Maybe fairness was the wrong word, but in the UK there are those that argue when a party gets a significant proportion of the popular vote and does not have an MP in the Commons, then is such a situation truly representative of the peoples' views. The Green party are a good example. Many have argued for proportional representation. However, it was pretty much thrown out in the 2011 referendum. But, I guess if one is standing for MP and rules are transparent, then that is fair for all individuals concerned.

I'm pretty sure someone has demonstrated that a seat-based political system eventually leads to a two-party system, while proportional representation leads to a multiplicity of parties. The danger of the former is that off-party views rarely get a look-in - you have to take the whole legislative platform of one party or the other. The danger of the latter is that governments can only be formed with unstable coalitions - see particularly Weimar Germany and post-WW2 Italy.

Here in the ACT we have a voting system which is a bit of a hybrid. It's called the Hare-Clark system and was copied from Tasmania, which introduced it about a century ago. The ACT is divided into electorates, but each electorate sends multiple members to the one-house Assembly. At the moment we have three seats with 5, 5 and 7 members. But for the next election the Assembly will increase to 25 members with five 5-member seats.

The voting system is a bit like the Federal Senate one - to get elected you have to get 1/6th of the popular vote, with any excess going to the next candidate on the ticket. * And if the last seat is unfilled, the unelected candidates are eliminated in order to distribute their preferences.

As a result, since we got self-government back in 1989, we've had only one majority government - all the others have been coalitions of some sort.

* Actually not strictly true, but it simplifies the explanation.
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Online Peter B

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #38 on: February 20, 2015, 06:58:11 AM »
C-Span used to carry question for the Prime Minister.  A far more lively event.  I always enjoyed watching Margret Thatcher and less so John Major. I cut my cable about that time so never got to see Tony Blair. 

One of my favourite moments from Blair, but the Tories didn't really help themselves:



Question Time can be entertaining in the Federal Parliament, as it's one place where the Opposition can lay some effective punches on a poorly performing government or minister. But likewise, an effective Prime Minister can energise a government with a powerful response to a question, whether from the Opposition or one of its own members (a so-called Dorothy Dixer).

In the case of the Senate, some fireworks also come from what's known as Senate Estimates. This is where cross-party committees interview ministers and their senior bureaucrats. For Opposition Senators it's another big opportunity to embarrass the government, usually through uncovering some scandal or other in a government department (for the bureaucrats, however, Estimates is a nerve-wracking experience).

Of course some have also been good speakers outside Parliament too.

Here's an example of some good political banter from over the years: (with a language warning, courtesy of Kevin Rudd).
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Offline ka9q

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #39 on: February 20, 2015, 06:58:21 AM »
My understanding, though (and feel free to correct me if I'm wrong), is that the Congressional gridlock is a problem for government agencies like NASA, because they have little certainty over their budgets, and annual threats of shutdowns play havoc with longer-term projects.
It's a problem for everybody, actually.

The US government has so many checks and balances, considered by the founders to be absolutely essential to prevent a slide into tyranny, that it pretty much forces everyone to bargain and compromise. While it has always been possible for individuals to bring things to a standstill (e.g., filibusters in the Senate) this used to be relatively rare. It was invoked only when the individual involved felt very strongly about an issue, and that could be seen as a good thing if it prompted the others to listen and reconsider their positions.

But such a system tends to break down when the parties are not amenable to compromise. This has been increasingly common in recent years, and there are many theories as to why.

One is that congressional districts -- which have winner-take-all elections -- have become increasingly "gerrymandered". Boundaries are drawn by the party in power in each state, which is strongly motivated to concentrate the other party's voters in as few districts as possible. Those districts then tend to elect politicians with relatively extreme and uncompromising views since they know they face relatively little opposition back home.

Another possible cause is our primary system. In most states, a "primary election" is held in the spring whereby each party selects the candidate that will later face the candidate from the other party in the November general election. It has become common in recent years for the ultra-conservative "Tea Party" faction of the Republican Party to drive out moderate incumbent Republicans during the primary campaigns. The primary losers can still run as third-party or write-in candidates in the general election and sometimes even win, but it's a difficult proposition.

Yet another cause is war, which is almost always highly divisive and polarizing, and we've kept them going for over 13 years now.
« Last Edit: February 20, 2015, 07:00:08 AM by ka9q »

Online Peter B

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #40 on: February 20, 2015, 07:13:58 AM »
Every now and then critics will argue that the Electoral College should be scrapped and that presidential elections should be decided based on popular vote.  They claim the Electoral College gives a numeric advantage to the smaller states.   On the other hand, the winner-take-all method of voting favors the larger states.  Personally, I prefer the weighting of the Electoral College, where each state has a number of electors equal to its number of congressional members (both houses).
The electoral college does give extra weight to the voters in smaller (in population) states. This is indisputable.

Each state is given a number of electors equal to the number of its representatives in the House of Representatives plus those in the Senate (two). Wyoming, the least populous state, has 584,000 people and three presidential electors. This is about 195,000 people per elector.

(Three electors is the minimum per state. Non-state territories get none, except for the special case of the District of Columbia. It gets three electoral votes even though it has no voting representation in the Congress. Despite having a larger population than Vermont and Wyoming, half of it is black so it is very unlikely to ever gain Congressional representation as long as the Congress remains so conservative.)

California, the most populous state, has 38.8 million people and 55 electors. That's 705,000 people per elector. I.e., each citizen of Wyoming is given 3.6 times the weight of each citizen of California in a presidential election...

We have a similar situation in Australia.

House of Reps seats are allocated in proportion to population, so New South Wales has the most seats - 48 out of 150. But there are some skews. For example, Tasmania is guaranteed at least five seats even if a population distribution would require them to get fewer. This was a compromise placed in the Constitution to encourage Tasmania to join the Federation back in 1901.

Now Tasmania has a population just over 500,000, meaning each seat represents a little over 100,000 people. By contrast, the ACT has a population of about 385,000, but we have only two seats, meaning each seat represents nearly 200,000 people. The problem for the ACT is that each time a seat redistribution is done, the ACT falls just short of qualifying for a third seat.

It's even worse in the Senate. As a state, Tasmania gets 12 Senators, meaning each Senator represents a bit over 40,000 electors. But the ACT as a territory gets only two Senators.

So despite having three-quarters of the population of Tasmania, we have less than a quarter of the political representation Tasmania has.

At the state level, the Tasmanian Parliament has a Lower House with 25 members, and an Upper House with 15. This compares to the ACT's one-house Assembly of (currently) 17 members. (Tasmania then has local governments too, though I wonder how much time members of shire and city councils spend in those jobs.) People grumble about the quality of the politicians we have at the moment and wonder how adding another 8 at the next ACT election would improve things. Personally I think it'll be good to increase the size of the talent pool.
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Offline Luke Pemberton

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #41 on: February 20, 2015, 11:07:12 AM »
Here's an example of some good political banter from over the years: (with a language warning, courtesy of Kevin Rudd).

I was warned that Australians tend to use the B-word quite openly and not much is considered of its use. In fact it is quite a term of endearment used in the right company and context, so it does not surprise me that the Australian house gets slightly fruity. I do love Australians and their relaxed use of language. I wish us stuck up Poms could learn a little bit more from our antipodean cousins.
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Offline Echnaton

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #42 on: February 20, 2015, 11:39:13 AM »
My understanding, though (and feel free to correct me if I'm wrong), is that the Congressional gridlock is a problem for government agencies like NASA, because they have little certainty over their budgets, and annual threats of shutdowns play havoc with longer-term projects.

Presumably if NASA staff are working to prepare a rocket for launch when a shutdown comes, then it's down tools and hope things don't deteriorate too much over the shutdown.

I tend to think of them as symptoms of the same problem.  Divergent views on the direction the government should move.  NASA has faced long term budget uncertainty from Nixon's time forward.  Now if the country came around to my way of thinking, then gridlock would be over! ;)

NASA certainly provides an easy target for budget cuts because it has no goal that peaks national pride like the Apollo program did.  The planning for a Mars mission is increasingly looking like a open ended program rather than a goal that would be achievable with chemical fueled rockets and other projects currently under development.  If the program is on the right track, then NASA needs to better explain the achieveability of its goals.  So, while NASA does some real science programs, it's lack of a cohesive direction opens it to accusations of being a corporate welfare program for aerospace/defense contractors. 
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Offline Bob B.

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #43 on: February 20, 2015, 12:16:20 PM »
The electoral college does give extra weight to the voters in smaller (in population) states. This is indisputable.

I know.  When I used the word 'claim' I didn't mean it isn't true, I mean that's the reason they claim the system isn't fair.

Offline ka9q

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Re: American civil rights
« Reply #44 on: February 21, 2015, 02:49:46 AM »
I know.  When I used the word 'claim' I didn't mean it isn't true, I mean that's the reason they claim the system isn't fair.
Depends on what you mean by "fair", I guess. If you believe that every US citizen should have an equal say in electing the president, the electoral college is most definitely unfair. Not only does it give greater weight to residents of less-populous states, but it gives no weight at all to residents of US territories like Puerto Rico, even though they are US citizens.

The effect of these systematic biases of the electoral college are open to debate, but it seems reasonable to claim that it tends to elect more conservative presidents than would a system of direct popular voting. The less heavily populated states are mostly rural, and residents of rural areas tend to be more conservative than urban populations. So the states with the heaviest per-voter weight tend to be the most conservative (with a few exceptions like Vermont and DC). On the other hand, the most unfairly treated state (in terms of having the most residents per electoral vote) is Texas, which is hardly liberal. (I'm not sure why it's Texas, not California; I'll have to investigate this.)

There have been only three electoral college inversions in US history: 1876, 1888 and most recently 2000 -- when the decidedly more conservative candidate was elected despite losing the popular vote. (The 1824 election landed in the House of Representatives, so it's a special case).

Before 2000, I used to think that the next time an inversion were to occur the Constitution would be changed with lightning speed. I was obviously wrong.

Edit to add: The chart with this information is at https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:State_population_per_electoral_vote.png. Electoral votes are assigned only every 10 years after a census so it's possible that Texas' population has grown so much since the last census that it has the most residents per electoral vote even though its total population is still less than that of California.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2015, 03:05:41 AM by ka9q »